Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Wed Apr 17, 12:20PM CDT

Corn futures are trading 1 to 2 cents lower in most contracts on Wednesday. The weekly EIA report showed ethanol production for the week of 4/12 up 14,000 barrels per day to 1.016 million bpd. Stocks took another encouraging drop to the lowest point since September, down 517,000 barrels to 22.676 million barrels. Monthly trade data from Census shows corn exports during February down 4.03% from last year at 3.617 MMT, which was a drop of 22.48% from January. Feb DDG exports totaled 686,005 MT, which was a 5-year low on lower production. Ethanol shipments were reported at 113.82 million gallons. At least one weather forecaster is now declaring the Brazilian double crop yield ‘made’ given expectations for rains between now and May 2. Private forecaster Celeres estimates the crop at 97.9 MMT.

May 19 Corn is at $3.57 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Corn is at $3.66, down 1 3/4 cents,

Sep 19 Corn is at $3.74, down 2 cents

Dec 19 Corn is at $3.85 1/2, down 2 cents

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are down 7 to 8 3/4 cents at midday, following double digit losses on Tuesday. Meal futures are down $2.50/ton and May soy oil 21 points lower Thursday’s Export Sales report is expected to show 350,000-800,000 MT in old crop soybean bookings for the week of 4/11, with new crop at 0-50,000 MT. Meal sales are seen at 125,000-325,000 MT, with soy oil at 8,000-30,000 MT. Soybean exports throughout February were the 5th largest monthly total on record, 4.577 MMT. That was up 8.65% yr/yr, but down 5.2% from January. Shipments to China were slightly larger than in 2018. Analysts with Brazilian consultancy Celeres expect the country’s 2018/19 soybean crop to total 115.8 MMT, up 2 MMT from their prior projection.

May 19 Soybeans are at $8.79 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents,

Jul 19 Soybeans are at $8.93, down 8 3/4 cents,

Aug 19 Soybeans are at $8.99, down 8 1/2 cents,

Sep 19 Soybeans are at $9.04 1/4, down 8 cents,

May 19 Soybean Meal is at $304.00, down $2.50

May 19 Soybean Oil is at $28.51, down $0.21

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are up 1 to 2 1/2 cents in the winter wheat contracts on Wednesday, after KC saw a few contract lows on Tuesday. MPLS is mixed, with May down 1 3/4 cents. The 6-10 day outlook shows warmer than normal temps for most of the US. Census trade data, released on Wednesday morning, showed the largest wheat exports for February since 2012/13 at 2.262 MMT. That was a 61.97% jump from 2018 and 12.95% larger than January. The trade range of estimates for old crop wheat export sales in the week of April 11 is 200,000-400,000 MT. Analysts also see 150,000-300,000 MT for new crop bookings. USDA will release that report on Thursday morning.

May 19 CBOT Wheat is at $4.47 1/2, up 2 1/2 cents,

May 19 KCBT Wheat is at $4.19, up 2 cents,

May 19 MGEX Wheat is at $5.25 1/2, down 1 3/4 cents

--Provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures are mixed at midday, with front month April down 30 cents. Feeder cattle futures are down 15 to 50 cents in the front months, with deferred contract higher. The CME feeder cattle index was up 47 cents on April 15 at $143.46. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Wednesday morning. Choice boxes were up 55 cents at $232.60, with Select boxes $1.10 lower at $220.05. USDA estimated this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 242,000 head through Tuesday. That would be 2,000 larger than last week and 6,000 head above the same week a year ago. A total of 1,269 head of the 1,578 head offered on Wednesday’s FCE auction were sold at an average price of $127.08. Sales ranged from $127-127.25. Sales of $126 are being reported in TX and KS so far today, with a few $127 bids showing up in NE outside of the FCE.

Apr 19 Cattle are at $126.850, down $0.300,

Jun 19 Cattle are at $122.200, down $0.250,

Aug 19 Cattle are at $119.350, up $0.025,

Apr 19 Feeder Cattle are at $145.275, down $0.400

May 19 Feeder Cattle are at $150.700, down $0.500

Aug 19 Feeder Cattle are at $159.975, down $0.225

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures are mixed on Wednesday, with front month May up 50 cents. Sources indicate that despite the massive shortfall in production, China will continue to reject imports of pork from hogs that have been fed ractopamine. If ultimately enforced, that could limit the size of US exports under any trade deal but mostly just complicates the supply chain. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 27 cents from the previous day @ $79.84 on April 15. Pork values are rising. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was $1.89 higher at $88.42 per cwt in the AM report. All primals were reported higher. The national base hog carcass value was down 7 cents in the Wednesday morning report, at an average weighted price of $77.31. Estimated FI hog slaughter was 904,000 head through Tuesday, down 46,000 from the previous week and 20,000 below last year.

May 19 Hogs are at $89.475, up $0.500,

Jun 19 Hogs are at $96.525, down $0.600

Jul 19 Hogs are at $100.850, down $0.325

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are showing 23 to 53 point gains at midday. Cotton exports in February were tallied at 1.484 million bales according to new Census data. That was 21.55% larger than January, which is a typical seasonal rise, but 25.09% lower than Feb 2018. The Cotlook A Index was down 145 points at 86.25 on April 16. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is 69.21, 99 points higher than the previous week and effective through Thursday for USDA program purposes. The 18/19 Brazilian cotton crop is expected to be the largest since 14/15 according to Celeres, at 2.5 MMT.

May 19 Cotton is at 78.17, up 23 points,

Jul 19 Cotton is at 78.97, up 41 points

Dec 19 Cotton is at 77.390, up 52 points

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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Phone: 402-697-3623
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E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

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