Ag Market Commentary
BRUG - Fri Dec 07, 7:27AM CST

Corn futures are trading fractionally higher this morning. They ended the Thursday session with most contracts 1 to 2 1/4 cents lower. Thursday morning’s delayed EIA report showed ethanol production in the final week of November at 1.069 million barrels per day. That was up 21,000 bpd from the week prior, as ethanol stockpiles rose 100,000 barrels to 23.030 million barrels. US census data released Thursday showed October corn exports @ 5.695 MMT (224.19 mbu), more than double last year and the second largest October ever. DDG exports were also the second most for October at 1.018 MMT, with ethanol exports an October record 175.41 million gallons. Analysts expect this morning’s Export Sales report to show 800,000 MT to 1.1 MMT in corn sales for the week ending November 29.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are fractionally mixed after ending Thursday with contracts down 3 to 4 cents. Jan was 1/2 cent from filling Monday’s gap. Nearby soy meal was down $1.90/ton, with soy oil 10 points lower. October exports of soybeans were reported at 5.58 million metric tonnes (205.04 mbu) by Census yesterday morning. That was 72.37% larger than September but down 42.15% from last year. They also reported soybean meal exports of 1.004 MMT for October, a record for that month. Soybean export sales in the week of 11/29 are seen at 600,000-900,000 MT. Soy meal is estimated at 175,000-400,000 MT, with bean oil at 8,000-26,000 MT. Stats Canada released production estimates on Thursday morning, with 2018/19 canola production 20.343 MMT, down 4.62% from last year. Canadian soybean production was estimated at 7.267 MMT, 5.84% lower than 2017.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are mostly 1 to 5 cents higher this morning, with two of the three December contracts not trading overnight despite still being deliverable. They ended Thursday with 2 to 6 1/4 cent losses in most contracts, as nearby Dec showed low volume ahead of next Friday’s expiration. MPLS was the weakest. Monthly trade data from Census showed that 1.904 MMT (69.97 mbu) of US wheat was exported in October. That was 4.6% larger than September and 45.42% above a year ago. Ideas for weekly export sales are running 300,000-600,000 MT ahead of this morning’s report. Taiwanese importers purchased 110,000 MT of US wheat in their tender on Wednesday. Japan’s weekly MOA tender saw purchases of 62,975 MT of US wheat. Canadian wheat production for 18/19 is now seen at 31.769 MMT by Stats Can, up 5.95% from last year. Egypt’s GASC purchased 290,000 MT Russian and 60,000 MT Ukrainian wheat for Jan 21-31 delivery in their tender on Thursday, with no offers from the US.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures saw losses of 35 to 65 cents in most contracts on Thursday. Feeder cattle futures were down 35 cents to $1.35 on the day. The CME feeder cattle index was down 85 cents on December 5 at $145.53. Wholesale beef prices were mixed on Thursday afternoon, tightening the Ch/Select spread to $14.45. Choice boxes were down 59 cents at $212.36, with the Select cutout value $1.36 higher at $198.22. USDA’s week to date estimated FI cattle slaughter is at 481,000 head, up 5,000 head from last week and 3,000 head larger than a year ago. Little cash trade has been reported so far this week outside of the FCE’s $117.50-118 on Wednesday. Bids were around $112-114 on Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog futures were 50 cents to $1.325 lower on Thursday, giving back part of Wednesday’s advance. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 2 cents from the previous day @ $56.40 on December 4. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was up 42 cents on Thursday afternoon at $72.12. The national base cash hog carcass value was down 3 cents yesterday afternoon at an average weighted price of $47.52. USDA’s FI hog slaughter was estimated at 471,000 head for Thursday, bringing the WTD total to 1.893 million head. That was up 27,000 head from last week and 37,000 head larger than the same week last year.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures are trading 14 to 22 points higher this morning ahead of the weekly Export Sales report. They posted 135 to 209 point losses on Thursday. The arrest of a Huawei executive increased tensions between US and China less than a week after the two countries called a 90 day “truce.” October’s US cotton exports totaled 608,545 bales according to Census data, which was down 14.89% from September but still 35% larger than a year ago. The Cotlook A index was UNCH from the previous day on Dec 5 at 87.80 cents/lb. The weekly USDA AWP is 69.34, up from 67.92 cents/lb the previous week. The new value is effective through next Thursday.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

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